Janez Malačič

ABSTRACT
According to the opinion of more and more
demographers in developed world sub-
replacement fertility in developed countries
is here to stay. However, the idea that
pronatalist economic and other population
policy measures can somehow help to
increase births of the second, the third or
even the fourth child in the family is still
alive too. Therefore, the analysis of the
fertility by birth order is of the special
interest. This paper shows that Slovenian
sub-replacement fertility in the last three to
four decades has been deeply founded in the
prevalence of the births of the first and the
second birth orders as well as in the sharp
decline of the births of the higher orders.
The probability that the family with two
children will get the third one drastically
decline in the comparison with the
probability that the family with one child
will get the second one is shown in the
fertility tables by birth order for Slovenia in
the years 2011 and 2021. Higher order
births in Slovenia have been very low since
the beginning of the 1980s. Fertility data by
birth order and our analysis show the
prevalence of the very low reproductive
norms in Slovenia. The prospects for
effective pronatalist policy and for the
increase of the number of births of all birth
orders and especially of the third and
2 eventually the fourth birth in Slovenia are
weak and uncertain.